Local Political Expert (Iowa) — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk

$100–200/hr

rate as listed

Workload: ~15h/week
Engagement: Project-based
Location: Worldwide
Field: Sciences

Author point-in-time forecasts and political-risk reports on Iowa elections, polling and statewide contests. You will also assess model-generated analysis against evidence available at a fixed cutoff.

The work

You will produce political reports and forecasts using only information available at a stated evidence cutoff. Day-to-day tasks include interpreting Iowa polling, estimating win probabilities, comparing judgments with market-implied odds, explaining how events could affect political and market outcomes, and documenting the reasoning behind each conclusion.

What the screen measures

The platform looks for direct work on current, upcoming or recent Iowa Senate, gubernatorial or statewide races. Screening emphasizes verifiable race experience, polling literacy, documented live forecasting and the ability to defend causal claims under follow-up. You may also be asked to grade model-generated analysis for evidentiary support, probabilistic coherence, state-specific accuracy and hindsight leakage.

Practical details

Tasks require strict point-in-time discipline: no hindsight, post-cutoff evidence, confidential information or material non-public information. The listing does not specify whether the engagement is remote, whether work is fully asynchronous or how many hours are typically available.

Pay band: $100–200/hr

What they look for

Direct analytical experience with current, upcoming or recent Iowa statewide races
Documented live judgments about polling, win probabilities or electoral odds
Strong polling and survey-methodology literacy
State-specific knowledge of Iowa voters, candidates and political conditions
Causal analysis of political events and potential market effects
Point-in-time forecasting without hindsight or post-cutoff evidence

Included with this listing

Interview prep — 10 questions

Matched to what this platform's screening actually measures. Answer each out loud in 60–90 seconds: claim → concrete example → implication.

What it tests: This tests whether your Iowa expertise comes from direct race analysis rather than general national commentary or passive familiarity.
A strong answer: Identify the race, cycle, organization and your specific analytical responsibilities, such as polling, targeting, modeling or race ratings. Distinguish your own work from the broader team's output.
Where people lose it: Candidates lose points by discussing Iowa politics broadly without naming a race, timeframe, deliverable or decision they personally influenced.

Summary, eligibility guidance and screening preparation are prepared by Sidequest from the platform's posting. Check the source listing before applying.